Former CNN analyst Chris Cillizza says that if Trump wins, there is a 99.9% chance the Republicans control the Senate in 2025.
The map is unfavorable to Democrats as it is, and a Trump victory would all but doom the Democrats.
Currently, the Senate is composed of 47 Democratic senators, 49 Republicans, and four independents; however, since some independents align themselves with the Democratic caucus and Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the president of the Senate, Democrats maintain control of the chamber. Cillizza on his YouTube channel broke down that a victory by the former president, given the current dynamics, would likely deliver Trump a Republican-controlled Senate.
Cillizza said via Youtube:
“One seat pickup [is] necessary if Donald Trump wins for Republicans,” Cillizza said. “If Donald Trump loses, they need to pick up two seats to be in the majority because then the tiebreaker would be a Democratic Vice President. Okay, so one seat if Trump wins, two seats if Trump loses. Well, the map looks pretty good for Republicans … There are 23 Democratic seats up in 2024 in November. There are 11 … Republican seats. And it’s actually even worse than that because of those 23 Democratic seats, three, West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana … went for Donald Trump by pretty considerable margins in 2020. And my guess is he’ll win in 2024 as well. Those are all held by Democrats currently but in states Trump won.”
“Out of the 11 Republican seats, there are zero that Joe Biden won. So not only do Democrats have more seats that they have to defend, those seats are in not great places for them to defend,” he added.
As for Joe Manchin:
“Now, I know there’s some talk he filed as an independent, but if he runs for anything in this year, I think it’s going to be governor, not for Senate again,” Cillizza said. “So that seat is basically gone.”
In West Virginia it is almost a guarantee that the seat goes Republican with current governor Jim Justice running for the Republicans.
And in Ohio Bernie Moreno will give current Senator Sherrod Brown (D) a run for his money.
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