Biden’s poll numbers have further cratered in the face of a Trump resurgence. In Wisconsin, Biden secured a lead in a state he took away from Trump in 2020. For the rest of the swing states, it’s utter catastrophe.
Georgia is almost guaranteed to go back to Trump, and Nevada could go for Republicans for the first time since 2004. Arizona and Michigan are also likely to go back to Trump, which would be enough to secure the Presidency. The NY Times says:
Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
Among the demographics, the youth vote is split between both candidates, due to Biden’s inflation and policy on Israel. The Black vote is estimated at 20% for Trump, which would shatter the Democrats’ keystone voting block. Fox News
The poll found Biden and Trump were tied in the 18-29 year-old category.
The survey also showed that Trump would win over 20% of Black voters, which would be the highest margin for a GOP candidate since 1964.
If The NY Times poll is accurate, and giving the state to the leading candidate, Trump would secure the presidency. Here is what the map would look like, using 270 to Win as a template for it. Ultimately, it will come down to turnout and early voting.
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