RFK Drops Out

Robert F Kennedy Jr. has officially suspended his campaign, endorsing Donald Trump for President in the process. This move so close to the election could alter the balance of power between Harris and Trump. AP News says:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his independent campaign for president Friday and endorsed Donald Trump, a late-stage shakeup of the presidential race that could give the former president a modest boost from Kennedy’s supporters. 

Kennedy said his internal polls had shown that his presence in the race would hurt Trump and help Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, though recent public polls don’t provide a clear indication that he is having an outsize impact on support for either major-party candidate.

Kennedy’s appeal crossed over to Trump voters, but also left-wing ones. His environmental policies were more like the Democrats’s, and still commands support from true Independents. The NY Times says:

And despite the common narrative that he was hurting Mr. Trump by staying in, it was not consistently clear which candidate Mr. Kennedy was drawing more votes from after President Biden exited the race. In recent Times/Siena polls, when pushed, Mr. Kennedy’s supporters were more inclined to support Mr. Trump. But other recent high-quality polls had found him to be pulling support from Vice President Kamala Harris.

That disagreement among polls is partially a reflection of how quickly public opinion has been changing over the last few weeks. And when high-quality polls show different findings on similar questions, it is often an indication that the opinions being measured are not strongly held.

His support for Trump might give the former President a slight edge, but not necessarily. Many of his supporters might end up not voting at all, as they are not committed to him so much as see him as a third-party choice.

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