Haley’s Small Victory Could Backfire

Nikki Haley has finally won her first contest, this time for the District of Columbia. She defeated Donald Trump by securing two thirds of the vote, and will be awarded 19 delegates.

While technically a win for Haley, the primary is extremely small with less than 2,000 people voting. For a candidate trying to secure their conservative bona fide, winning the most liberal state-level entity in the country could be a net negative. Politico says:

Nikki Haley won her first presidential primary on Sunday. She just had to wait for the D.C. insider crowd to vote.

Haley defeated Donald Trump in the Washington, D.C. Republican primary, a contest that took place over the weekend in a downtown hotel just steps away from the heart of D.C.’s lobbying hub. Haley carried nearly 63 percent of the vote, according to D.C. party officials.

DC is a uniquely stranger political environment. The district is over 90% Democrat, with the 10% of Republicans being the most moderate sort mostly concerned with tax policies. It has always voted for Democrats in presidential elections, because Democrats are the part of government.

Haley took 63% of the GOP primary vote to 33% for Trump. Just over 2,000 Washington Republicans cast ballots. Because Haley got more than half of the vote, she came away with the District’s 19 delegates.

Washington’s moderate set of Republicans, many of whom work in politics or government, are seen as vastly different from those in other early states, like South Carolina and Iowa, which set up a scenario in which Haley had her first legitimate chance to notch a victory. Trump got just 14% of the vote in Washington’s 2016 primary.

Haley could potentially win other small territories in the United States, but will most likely not win any states. Her victory in DC is a liability among the Republican base, as anyone who wins that primary in an open contest makes them politically suspect.

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