An Illinois State judge has banned Trump from the ballot, which could affect both his primary and general election chances. Nikki Haley could benefit from this, but it would hurt her standing within the Republican Party.
The judge also stayed her order until Friday, giving the Trump campaign a chance to appeal. With so many Democrat officials declaring by fiat that Trump is ineligible, the Supreme Court will likely have to way in quickly to prevent a crisis. The NY Times says:
The decision by Judge Tracie R. Porter of the State Circuit Court in Cook County was stayed until Friday. Judge Porter, a Democrat, said the State Board of Elections had erred in rejecting an attempt to remove Mr. Trump and said the board “shall remove Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed.”
Early voting in the Illinois primary is already underway. Because Judge Porter stayed her order, Mr. Trump can remain on the ballot at least until Friday, giving him a chance to appeal the order.
The “insurrection clause” of the 14th amendment was meant to prevent former Confederate officials who had previously sworn an oath to the US Constitution. While it did not include every Confederate soldier, it did cover the top echelon of society, who had been in Federal or State government and the armed forces. The Federal Government has not officially found the January 6 riot to be an insurrection or rebellion, making Donald Trump’s role in it even less central. Fox News says:
The 14th Amendment, Section 3 of the Constitution states, “No person shall… hold any office… under the United States… who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States… to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”
Trump has never been charged with inciting an insurrection.
Functionally, chances for Trump to win Illinois are slim regardless. The real issue being fought here is over sovereignty, and who gets to decide who runs for elections. If any government official can decide who runs for election, the United States will enter into a constitutional crisis of legitimacy.
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